What happens after the tariff hike?
Loyalty without
satisfaction.
Three in four users say they will switch within six months — including most of the customers who recommend their provider. Price started the churn; only performance can stop it.
Explore the findingsAdvocacy is high. Lock-in is gone.
5G is now the price of staying.
Top-two-box port-out intent; 34.7% are definite (score 5) switchers — churn risk spans every spend tier.
Report pp. 13-14Jio strongest spend tier, 6.4 points above its 49.4% overall primary-SIM share. Base n=249 in tier.
Report pp. 5-65G is the majority technology; only about 30% remain on 4G/LTE and 13.5% on legacy or unsure. Base n=995.
Report pp. 7-8All figures are weighted survey estimates on stated intent, not observed port-outs. Multi-response benefit shares sum above 100 by design; tier cuts state their base.
Loyalty without satisfaction.
Six numbers that reframe the market: churn intent is universal, Jio owns the premium tier, 5G is baseline, and recommend no longer means remain.
Indian telecom has entered a post-hike market where advocacy no longer predicts retention — and the operator that delivers stability in the Rs 201-500 tier keeps the most tech-active users.
Switching intent is the headline
Top-two-box port-out intent (base n=995: 39.0% score 4 plus 34.7% score 5). High-value users over Rs 1,000 lead at 74.8% — premium billing buys no loyalty.
Jio completed the premium pivot
Share of primary SIMs in the Rs 501-1,000 tier (base n=249 in tier), 6.4 points over 49.4% overall. Airtel sits near 26% in every tier — flat where it should slope.
The mid-tier is the 5G sweet spot — and the pain point
5G adoption in Rs 201-500 (base n=345), ahead of even over-Rs 1,000 at 58.4% — yet only 13.2% of this tier reports no network issues vs 19.8% in Rs 501-1,000.
Satisfaction does not stop switching
677 of 993 respondents score 4-5 on BOTH recommend and switch intent. Only 1 respondent is hardcore loyal; only 9 are true detractors.
Dual-SIM is structural hedging
Have a secondary SIM (base n=995, about 711 yes). Peaks at 74.8% above Rs 1,000 vs 68.6% under Rs 200.
Unlimited 5G justified the hike — except in the middle
Say unlimited 5G justifies recent price rises (base n=995, about 708 yes). The Rs 501-1,000 tier is lowest at 68.7%.
Stop selling 5G as a bonus and start delivering it as a utility. Defend the Rs 201-500 tier on stability, retain high-value users on latency and indoor reliability — not price — and treat every secondary SIM as a conquest opening, because advocacy no longer predicts retention.
Young, prepaid, and spread across India.
A working-age, prepaid-majority sample balanced across four regions — the decision-makers living through the 5G transition and the tariff hikes.
Age profile
A working-age sample centred on 25-44
| Response | Respondents |
|---|---|
| 25-34 years | 38% |
| 35-44 years | 24% |
| 18-24 years | 22% |
| 45+ years | 16% |
Who took part
Prepaid majority, n=995
Monthly recharge, all SIMs
Spend spread with a mid-tier centre
| Response | Respondents |
|---|---|
| Rs 201-500 | 34.7% |
| Rs 501-1,000 | 25% |
| More than Rs 1,000 | 22.7% |
| Less than Rs 200 | 17.6% |
5G is mainstream. Satisfaction is not.
Adoption has crossed the majority line, but the experience gap — speeds, latency, indoor reliability — now decides who stays.
Technology on primary SIM
5G has crossed the majority line
| Response | Respondents |
|---|---|
| 5G | 56.9% |
| 4G/LTE | 31.6% |
| Legacy plus unsure | 13.5% |
Indoor signal, overall
Coverage is good; depth is uneven
| Response | Respondents |
|---|---|
| 4, Good | 38.5% |
| 5, Excellent | 37.5% |
| 3, Average | 15.9% |
| Bottom-two-box (1-2) | 8.1% |
Data-speed satisfaction
Speeds lag coverage by a wide margin
| Response | Respondents |
|---|---|
| Top-two-box | 42.1% |
| Neutral | 30.6% |
| Bottom-two-box | 27.3% |
Slow data speeds affect 32.3% of all respondents (base n=995); 24.0% report no issues. The mid-tier Rs 201-500 reports fewest no-issues at 13.2% vs 19.8% in Rs 501-1,000.
The 5G-by-spend split uses per-tier bases (175/345/249/226): Rs 201-500 leads at 60.9%, then Rs 501-1,000 at 60.2%, over-Rs 1,000 at 58.4%, under-Rs 200 at 43.4%.
Unhappy, loyal, and already leaving.
How users reacted to the hikes, how likely they are to port, and why recommendation scores no longer predict retention.
Reaction to tariff hikes
Four reactions in near-equal quarters
| Response | Respondents |
|---|---|
| Unhappy but staying | 26.3% |
| Reduced usage | 25.6% |
| Planning to switch | 24.2% |
| No effect | 23.9% |
Port-out intent by spend
Churn risk spans every tier
| Response | Likely to switch |
|---|---|
| Over Rs 1,000 | 74.8% |
| Rs 201-500 | 74.2% |
| Rs 501-1,000 | 72.7% |
| Under Rs 200 | 72.6% |
Recommend versus switch
n=993, weighted counts| Switch intent | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 (high) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 (high intent) | 12 | 0 | 5 | 29 | 302 |
| 4 | 7 | 15 | 29 | 312 | 34 |
| 3 | 6 | 12 | 110 | 36 | 4 |
| 2 | 3 | 41 | 11 | 6 | 4 |
| 1 (low intent) | 9 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 |
Rows sum to 993. Both-top-two-box is 677 (68.2%). True detractors (1,1) are 9; hardcore loyal (1,5) is 1. Source: pp. 22-23.
What actually keeps a customer.
Speed and coverage beat price, unlimited 5G is table stakes, and the mid-tier decides the next share shift.
Defend the Rs 201-500 sweet spot
Highest 5G (60.9%, n=345) with the lowest no-issues rate (13.2%); stability work here prevents port-outs among the most tech-active users.
Sell reliability, not gigabytes
Speed (1.94) and coverage (1.99) outrank price on mean rank; message latency and indoor wins to the unhappily loyal.
Convert the second SIM
74.8% of over-Rs 1,000 users carry one (169 of 226); data-only failover packs for challengers, indoor coverage for incumbents.
Bundle upward from Rs 501-1,000
68.7% 5G-justification (n=249) is the soft tier; family and consolidated plans bridge it to over-Rs 1,000.
Recommendations synthesised from report pp. 25-27.
